GoLow: John Middlekauff’s 2026 U.S. Open Preview & Storylines to Watch

We have the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in the Hamptons this week, where Brooks Koepka won it in 2018.

I’m going to get into five big storylines surrounding this one, preview the event and give out some of my best bets. I love gambling on majors. I thoroughly look forward to it.

Let’s get down to business.

Shinnecock Hills Is Set Up for U.S. Open Carnage

When I was growing up, you went into the U.S. Open expecting carnage. Over the last several years, that hasn’t always been the case, but by all accounts Shinnecock Hills looks ready to provide a throwback.

The wind is already pumping, and the forecast suggests it’s only going to get stronger as the week goes on. If you’ve watched any of the content coming out of Shinnecock, the course looks fantastic. Even good players are struggling to navigate it.

When Koepka won here in 2018, he finished at 1-over. You can argue players are better today. Technology has improved. Players maximize every aspect of their games with TrackMan and modern analytics. But when the wind starts blowing 30 miles per hour and the U.S. Open setup shows its teeth, none of that matters quite as much.

You still have to be a ball striker. You still have to be a player.

That’s what makes the U.S. Open unique. More than any major, it tests players mentally. Every year presents a different challenge, but the pressure remains the same.

The event has produced legends like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, but it has also produced champions like J.J. Spaun, Lee Janzen, and Corey Pavin. There are no guarantees.

Phil Mickelson finished runner-up so many times and never won the tournament. Ernie Els won multiple majors but never conquered Augusta. The U.S. Open has always had a way of exposing even the greatest players.

If the wind shows up, I wouldn’t be surprised if something around par wins the tournament. One or two under might be enough.

That is what I’m hoping for.

When someone wins the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Oakmont, or Shinnecock Hills, it means something. Those courses carry weight. The trophy carries weight. That’s what makes this week so compelling.

Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler

For years, golf fans wanted Tiger Woods versus Phil Mickelson. It never really happened the way everyone imagined.

This week, if we could get Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both in contention heading into the weekend, it would be electric.

Scheffler is chasing the career Grand Slam, and there’s no debating that he remains one of the best players in the world. But I do have one question when it comes to this specific tournament.

When conditions become difficult, he can get a little frustrated.

Tiger could get frustrated too, but one of Tiger’s greatest strengths was his ability to immediately refocus. He could lock right back in after a bad break or poor shot.

My question for Scheffler is whether a difficult stretch of holes at a major like this can derail him.

That’s one reason I’m not rushing to bet him this week. The odds are short, and while he can absolutely win, I don’t necessarily envision it happening. I actually like Rory more.

To me, this is the best version of Rory McIlroy we’ve ever seen over an extended period. He won more majors earlier in his career, but the complete player we’ve seen over the last three years is better than any version before it.

He’s also figured out the U.S. Open. He should have won at Los Angeles Country Club. He had a tremendous chance at Pinehurst. He’s consistently put himself in contention at this event.

Even last year, after finally winning the Masters, I give him a bit of a pass. He admitted he lost some focus after accomplishing such a massive career goal.

What stands out most is how he’s evolved his game.

Historically, Rory was a high-ball player. Over the last several years, he’s developed the ability to hit lower, more penetrating shots and control trajectory much better, especially with his wedges.

That matters at Shinnecock.

A few years ago, when he played alongside Scheffler in difficult conditions at Augusta, the contrast was obvious. Rory struggled. Scheffler looked completely comfortable.

Rory went back to work. That’s what great players do. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes you get exposed. Then you get back in the lab and improve.

I think we’re seeing the payoff from that work.

Why Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele Fit This Test

One thing that’s become clear through all the LIV Golf drama is that Jon Rahm feels like a player who belongs competing on the biggest stages against the strongest fields.

Whether LIV survives or not, Rahm still looks like someone built for major championships.

His U.S. Open record speaks for itself: T3, T23, win, T12, T10, injury, T7.

This is a tournament where the best ball strikers and mentally toughest players tend to rise to the top, and Rahm checks both boxes.

The same is true of Xander Schauffele. In many ways, Xander’s temperament is perfectly suited for the U.S. Open. He doesn’t get overly emotional. He doesn’t spend rounds complaining. A bogey doesn’t seem to affect him much, and neither does a birdie.

His U.S. Open results are also remarkable: T5, T6, T3, fifth, T7, T14, T10, T17, T12.

That’s not a coincidence. This championship is tailor-made for him.

Do I think Schauffele wins? I’m not sure I’d go that far.

But I would be surprised if at least one of Rahm or Schauffele isn’t firmly in the mix on Sunday.

Don’t Sleep on Tommy Fleetwood

Earlier this season, it felt like Cameron Young was destined to break through and win a major. Now it feels like his game has gone in the opposite direction.

Tommy Fleetwood is a different story.

If you had watched him shoot 63 at Shinnecock in 2018, you probably would have predicted he’d win several PGA Tour events and at least one major championship over the next decade. Instead, he’s still searching for that breakthrough.

But that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an outstanding player. Fleetwood has recorded three top-five finishes in U.S. Opens and enters this week playing some excellent golf. Two of his last three starts have resulted in top-five finishes.

Everything about Shinnecock seems to fit his strengths. This is a second-shot golf course, and Fleetwood remains one of the best iron players in the game. He’s a top-five ball striker this season, and his short game has been excellent as well.

The wind is another factor working in his favor.

Players who grow up competing in difficult conditions tend to feel more comfortable when tournaments become a grind. Fleetwood has spent his entire career dealing with that type of golf.

The only lingering concern is the putter.

When Fleetwood putts well, he can beat anyone. When he doesn’t, it leaves you wanting a little more.

U.S. Open Best Bets

Now let’s get into some bets.

Rory McIlroy to Win (+1100)

After finally winning the Masters, Rory appears to be playing with a different level of confidence.

He’s developed more control over his trajectory, improved his ability to flight the golf ball, and has become a more complete player.

I think he’s going to be right in the mix, and I’m picking him to win.

Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+225)

Fleetwood’s ball striking, recent form, and ability to handle windy conditions make him one of my favorite plays on the board.

Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+200)

Fitzpatrick is having an outstanding season and already owns a U.S. Open title. He has proven he can thrive when conditions become difficult, which makes him a strong fit for this week.

Longshot: Gary Woodland Top 10 (+850)

Woodland is a former U.S. Open champion who still possesses the ability to hit a low, penetrating ball flight and control his iron trajectories.

He’s having a solid season and offers tremendous value deeper down the board.

Middlekauff’s 2026 U.S. Open Card:

• Rory McIlroy to Win (+1100)
• Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+225)
• Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+200)
• Gary Woodland Top 10 (+850)