College Football Week 4 Underdog Picks: Kelly in Vegas’ 3 Best Bets & Parlay

I’ve got three underdogs worth a look for college football Week 4.

If all three spring the upset, it’s going to pay 49-1 with our friends over at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Let’s start in order of littlest to biggest. My smallest dog of the weekend is Western Michigan +7.

Western Michigan +7 vs. Boise State

How exciting is it that we get implications for the College Football Playoff in Week 4? Who would have thought?

Just a few short weeks ago, Western Michigan traveled to Ann Arbor and lost, I think, to a Michigan team that subsequently knocked off Oklahoma 17-10.

Now, that result has faded from the headlines, but this point spread indicates the oddsmakers have still not properly accounted for Western Michigan’s win.

Broc Lowry has taken care of the football, and that’s what I love to see with our underdogs. He’s completed almost 71% of his passes for 417 yards and four touchdowns and, most importantly, has yet to throw an interception.

Jalen Buckley added 117 yards on 13 carries in a nice 28-21 road win at Rice – which was a bad beat if you laid the points. Don’t watch the last 30 seconds of that one. Congratulations if you did have Rice.

Boise State, on the flip side, is a team we’re looking to bet against once again.

Yes, they opened the season at Oregon and lost a tight one, but after looking at the box score, we can see how badly they got outgained.

Then there’s Memphis. If we only look at the final score, it looks like Boise State easily handled them after a big second half. We know we were on Memphis. They were up 17-3. That one was no fun.

But we get our revenge in Kalamazoo this weekend.

Boise State is 0-5 against the spread in its last five non-conference games as a road favorite.

Take Western Michigan +7 and, of course, Western Michigan +225.

Minnesota +10 at Washington

Let’s get into the coveted double-digit underdog, a spot where we’ve thrived all season long.

Tulsa, Iowa State and, of course, Country Roads, Take Me Home. I’m still singing that song. West Virginia got it done for us last week, not only covering the 10.5, but winning that one outright.

Now we’ve got Minnesota +10.

Yes, we are fading the fraudulent 3-0 team. Well, they haven’t covered a point spread – that type of fraudulent.

The Huskies laid 23.5 to Washington State and won 24-10. They laid 28.5 to a winless Utah State team that also lost to an FCS opponent at home and won just 16-4 after the Apple Cup. Then they laid 42.5 to an FCS team of their own in Eastern Washington and won 48-6.

This team is unranked for a reason.

Their run game is a major issue. Jonah Coleman had 758 yards and 15 touchdowns on 156 carries last year, and they have not been able to fill that void. If you take out the quarterback scrambles, Washington’s backs are averaging just 3.83 yards per carry. And that’s all against that soft schedule. They have some real problems in the run game. Trey Cooley has 45 yards on 19 carries.

Demond Williams has been efficient, throwing for 890 yards while completing almost 71% of his passes. But 373 of those passing yards came in one afternoon against an FCS secondary.

Let’s talk about the Gophers.

Minnesota is far better than that 38-13 loss to Mississippi State. Last week we were on South Carolina. We had to take that L. The Bulldogs played a tough second half in Columbia and won that game outright.

I would argue Mississippi State is just a little bit better than we all thought they would be.

Drake Lindsey threw 18 touchdown passes last season and has started this season with four touchdowns and one interception. Darius Taylor has been out with a leg injury, and we are hoping he’s back for this one. But if not, TJ Thomas Jr. has really stepped up. He had 122 yards on 13 carries against Akron.

I think this backfield is going to stay productive against this Washington defense.

Ten points is a lot to lay with a team that has not covered the number all season against a fellow Big Ten opponent who’s not going to be impressed with this trip out west.

PJ Fleck is 18-12-1 against the spread as an underdog.

Give me Minnesota +10. Give me some of that Minnesota +325 outright.

Vanderbilt +9.5 at Auburn

Now for the one that everybody’s going to gripe and groan about, and I get it.

A lot of people want to use what we saw last week in Vanderbilt-NC State against Vanderbilt, and rightfully so. They should have lost that game, but they are now sitting at 3-0.

Jared Curtis made his first career start last week against NC State, completing 20 of 34 passes for 277 yards and three touchdowns. Those two interceptions, though, probably should have cost them the win.

Now the freshman is making his first road start in the SEC. Good thing this is just another play against Auburn for us.

Last week we laid the 2.5 with Florida. Auburn lost 44-39 at home to Florida, but that final score was not really telling the whole story.

The Tigers trailed 41-24 with 12 minutes left before getting two late scores. They still could not get the cover or win there at home.

Their defense gave up 243 rushing yards in that game, and they’re allowing almost 23 points a game on the season.

The kicker for me: Vanderbilt is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 SEC games, just quietly flying under the radar and covering all along the way. Auburn is almost the inverse of that at 5-10-1.

Yes, it’s Alex Golesh’s first year. We can throw those stats out the window, but I don’t think he’s going to get this Auburn team turned around just yet.

This is their second straight week hosting an SEC opponent who is expecting to win the game. If you remember, Vandy has won the last two versus the Tigers. And now you’re asking Auburn, who gave up 44 points last week, to lay 9.5? Not with that defense.

Take Vanderbilt +260 and, of course, Vanderbilt +9.5.

College Football Week 4 Underdog Parlay

If all three dogs win outright, this parlay is going to pay 49-1 at Hard Rock Bet:

• Western Michigan +225
• Minnesota +325
• Vanderbilt +260
• 3-Team Parlay Odds: +4900