Happy Tuesday! We’re back with a few MLB home-run props for September 22 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. The season is almost over, but there are some intriguing spots to attack today.
Let’s get into my best home run picks today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Tuesday, September 22
- Samuel Basallo +650 (Blue Jays at Orioles – 6:35 p.m. ET)
- Nolan Arenado +400 (Diamondbacks at Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET)
- Matt Olson +325 (Reds at Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Samuel Basallo (+650)
Samuel Basallo is the biggest price on today’s card, and there is a little lineup risk because he is currently day-to-day. This is a play only if he is active for Baltimore.
If he is, though, 6/1 is an awfully tempting number. And part of the reason for the high price is bad hitting weather, but I like the matchup too much to watch from the sidelines.
The matchup is against Max Scherzer. That name still carries weight for good reason, but left-handed hitters have found a path against him in recent seasons.
This year, Scherzer has surrendered a .200 ISO to lefties, and the trend did not suddenly appear in 2026. He’s yielded a to of power dating back to the beginning of last season.
Of Basallo’s 18 home runs this season, 16 came when he faced right-handed pitching. For a player with this type of platoon power, I’ll take the long number if he makes the Orioles lineup.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Nolan Arenado (+400)
We have a nice park boost in Denver, and Nolan Arenado has the split we want against Kyle Freeland.
Arenado has done plenty of damage against southpaws this season, carrying a .259 ISO in the split. He has also homered twice since last Wednesday, so the bat has not exactly gone quiet heading into this matchup.
Freeland is the bigger part of the equation. He has permitted 24 homers to right-handed hitters, who are slugging .591 against him. The left-hander’s 6.38 ERA is ugly, but the quality of contact allowed might be more concerning.
Freeland sits in the sixth percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. That is a terrible combination before we even consider that he is pitching at Coors Field.
The ball travels differently in Denver, and there is less room for error against someone who can still mash against left-handed pitching. Arenado gets an opponent allowing loud contact, a favorable handedness split, and the most hitter-friendly setting on the schedule.
At +400, I think the price is plenty good enough to take a swing.
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Matt Olson (+325)
I’m not typically racing to bet a left-handed slugger against a left-handed starter. Matt Olson vs. Brandon Williamson is an exception.
Olson has 40 home runs already, and the impressive part is that he has not needed a right-handed pitcher to provide the power. He has produced a .237 ISO against lefties, proving once again that he is an equal-opportunity threat to go deep.
Williamson has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed power. He has allowed a .278 ISO to left-handed hitters, which is a brutal mark for a southpaw. His 5.56 ERA already tells an unpleasant story, but the supporting data offers little reason for optimism.
Williamson has a 6.40 expected ERA, ranks in the first percentile in chase rate, and is below average at avoiding barrels, hard contact, and fly balls. Hitters are seeing the ball, getting pitches in the zone, and doing damage when they connect.
At +325, the handedness matchup has created a price I’m happy to attack. Olson has the lefty-split numbers and raw power to make Williamson pay.
MLB Home Run Leaders 9/22
Here are the MLB home run leaders as of Tuesday:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs — 45
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies — 45
- Junior Caminero, Rays — 41
- Pete Alonso, Orioles — 40
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros — 40
- Matt Olson, Braves — 40
- Hunter Goodman, Rockies — 39
- Ben Rice, Yankees — 39
- Rafael Devers, Giants — 37
- Brandon Lowe, Pirates — 33
- Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays — 33
- Miguel Vargas, White Sox — 33
Good luck Tuesday!
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